A Multiyear Model of Influenza Vaccination in the United States

Abstract

Vaccinating adults against influenza remains a challenge in the United States. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we present a model for predicting who receives influenza vaccination in the United States between 2012 and 2014, inclusive. The logistic regression model contains nine predictors: age, pneumococcal vaccination, time since last checkup, highest education level attained, employment, health care coverage, number of personal doctors, smoker status, and annual household income. The model, which classifies correctly 67 percent of the data in 2013, is consistent with models tested on the 2012 and 2014 datasets. Thus, we have a multiyear model to explain and predict influenza vaccination in the United States. The results indicate room for improvement in vaccination rates. We discuss how cognitive biases may underlie reluctance to obtain vaccination. We argue that targeted communications addressing cognitive biases could be useful for effective framing of vaccination messages, thus increasing the vaccination rate. Finally, we discuss limitations of the current study and questions for future research.

Keywords: adults; cognitive bias; communication; influenza vaccination; public health.

Figure 1

Confusion matrix and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

Figure 1

Confusion matrix and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.