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. 2017 Aug 9;6(8):e70.
doi: 10.1038/emi.2017.57.

Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters

Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni  1   2 , Andrew P Morse  2   3 , Cyril Caminade  3   4 , Suryanaryana Murty Upadhyayula  1   5
Affiliations

Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters

Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni et al. Emerg Microbes Infect. .

Abstract

For the past ten years, the number of dengue cases has gradually increased in India. Dengue is driven by complex interactions among host, vector and virus that are influenced by climatic factors. In the present study, we focused on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and its variability in different climatic zones of India. The EIP was calculated by using daily and monthly mean temperatures for the states of Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Kerala. Among the studied states, a faster/low EIP in Kerala (8-15 days at 30.8 and 23.4 °C) and a generally slower/high EIP in Punjab (5.6-96.5 days at 35 and 0 °C) were simulated with daily temperatures. EIPs were calculated for different seasons, and Kerala showed the lowest EIP during the monsoon period. In addition, a significant association between dengue cases and precipitation was also observed. The results suggest that temperature is important in virus development in different climatic regions and may be useful in understanding spatio-temporal variations in dengue risk. Climate-based disease forecasting models in India should be refined and tailored for different climatic zones, instead of use of a standard model.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
(A) Mean annual rainfall (mm) based on the TRMM satellite data and (B) mean (C) minimum and (D) maximum temperature (°C) based on the NCEP2 reanalysis data set. The annual mean is calculated for the 1998–2014 period. This figure was created using the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Command Language (NCL) version 6.1.2 (http://www.ncl.ucar.edu/).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Dengue incidence rates (per million population) in India from 1998 to 2014. (Data source: NVBDCP, Govt. of India).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Average dengue incidence rates (per million population) by state in India from 1998 to 2014. The map was generated with ArcGIS-10.2.1 software (http://www.esri.in) from dengue case data.
Figure 4
Figure 4
Yearly dengue incidence rates for different states of India. (Data source: NVBDCP, Govt. of India).
Figure 5
Figure 5
EIP (days) for DENV estimated from daily temperature data (from 1979 to 2014) for five states of India. The horizontal line (EIP=30 days) depicts a theoretical threshold, where EIP exceeds the maximum longevity of the mosquito vector.
Figure 6
Figure 6
Mean annual EIP (in days) based on NCEP2 monthly mean temperatures calculated for the period 1998–2014. This figure was created using the NCAR Command Language (NCL) version 6.1.2 (http://www.ncl.ucar.edu/).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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