Revisiting the Relationship Between Data, Models, and Decision-Making

Abstract

We hydrologists can do a better job of supporting water-resources decision-making. I will argue that we can do this by recognizing that decision makers use qualitative, multiple-narrative approaches. So, rather than providing single-model predictions with quantitative uncertainties, we should develop teams of rival models that inform decision makers about what is known, what is possible, and what is unknown. This requires that we build ensembles of models that include biased, advocacy models that directly represent stakeholders' interests or concerns. From this inclusive platform, we can speak objectively and clearly about the risks that drive stakeholders' decisions. Furthermore, we will be promoting more appropriate use of the scientific method in making informed water-resources decisions.