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. 2005 Aug 16;2(3):216-224.
doi: 10.1007/s10433-005-0002-0. eCollection 2005 Sep.

Future demand for formal long-term care in Sweden

Ilija Batljan  1 , Mårten Lagergren  2
Affiliations

Future demand for formal long-term care in Sweden

Ilija Batljan et al. Eur J Ageing. .

Abstract

Ageing population will have a significant effect on demand for human resources in health care and social care for the older people. Here we are presenting, using different scenarios, how projected demographic development may influence the demand for formal long-term care (LTC) for the people older than 65 years in Sweden 2000-2030. Our method uses information on utilisation of current services per gender and age group, demographic projections of number of older people per gender and age group and assumptions on health status changes per gender and age group. Our assumptions on health status changes were based on estimates from Swedish National Survey of Living Conditions, covering 32,502 observations during the period 1975-1999. The assumption that trends in severe ill-health in Sweden between 1975 and 1999 will continue (meaning expected improvements in age/gender-specific health and functional ability among the older people) results in the projected increase in the demand by year 2030 being almost halved, compared with an estimate that is based on unchanged age/gender-specific health and functional ability. The assessment of future demand for LTC for the people older than 65 years should involve extrapolations based on expected changes in health status, as well as the question how decreasing mortality incorporated into population forecasts is to be associated with future trends on severe morbidity/disability.

Keywords: Ageing; Demand for LTC; Health status; Human resources; Mortality; Sweden.

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Morbidity–mortality: three hypotheses
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Sweden’s older people population, trends up to 2030 according to Statistics Sweden’s latest projection, men and women in Sweden, 65–79 years and 80+ years, 2000–2030
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Trend of the proportion of older people 65–84 years age* with severe ill-health according to SCB’s Swedish National Survey of Living Conditions (1975–1999)
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Volume-index trend for demand for human resources for long-term care for older people in Sweden, with simple and revised extrapolation according to data from Swedish National Survey of Living Conditions (trends based on two time periods 1975/1979–1995/1995 and 1985/1989–1995/1995), 2000–2030
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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