An Inter-regional US Blood Supply Simulation Model to Evaluate Blood Availability to Support Planning for Emergency Preparedness and Medical Countermeasures

Abstract

Objectives: Planning for a response to threats like pandemics or mass casualty events is a national priority. The US blood supply system can be particularly vulnerable to such events. It is important to understand the impacts of emergency situations on blood availability and the resiliency of the US blood supply system.

Methods: On the basis of the Stock-and-Flow simulation model of the US blood supply system, we developed an inter-regional blood transfer system representing the action of multiple blood collectors and distributors to enable effective planning of strategies to minimize collection and donation disruptions to the blood supply system in the event of a national emergency.

Results: We simulated a pandemic or mass casualty event on both a national and an inter-regional blood supply system. Differences in the estimated impacts demonstrated the importance of incorporating spatial and temporal variations of blood collection and utilization across US regions. The absence of blood shortage in both emergency scenarios highlighted the resilience of the inter-regional system to meet the potential associated blood demand.

Conclusions: Our inter-regional model considered complex factors and can be a valuable tool to assist regulatory decision-making and strategic planning for emergency preparedness to avoid and mitigate associated adverse health consequences. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:201-210).

Keywords: blood availability; blood supply; emergency preparedness; mass casualty event; pandemic.