Inequality and demographic response to short-term economic stress in North Orkney, Scotland, 1855-1910: Sector differences

Abstract

We examine economic inequality and social differences in infant and child mortality, and fertility responses to food price changes in North Orkney, 1855-1910, using linked vital records. This small population featured a diverse occupational structure, limited land resources, and geographic isolation from mainland Scotland. Segments of Orkney's non-agricultural working population were living so close to the margin of subsistence in normal years that an increase in food prices in bad years cost the lives of their children. Delayed childbearing, in addition to increased labour intensity, occupational diversification, and poor relief, failed to mitigate the negative effects of unfavourable prices in this group. While previous studies for Western Europe show a strong social gradient in mortality responses to food prices, and for Eastern Asia a strong household gradient, this study shows a strong sectoral gradient, indicating low standards of living for the non-agricultural working population well into the twentieth century.

Keywords: Scotland; child mortality; event-history analysis; fertility; infant mortality; occupation; staple grain prices.

Figure 1. Distribution of valuation of landholdings in North Orkney, 1881

Source: Valuation rolls for the parishes of Westray, Papa Westray, Lady, Cross, Burness, Eday and Pharay, and North Ronaldsay, Orkney County, Scotland, archived at the Orkney County Library and Archive.

Figure 2. Population of the Northern Islands of Orkney, Scotland, 1841–1931

Note: Dotted lines indicate study period Source: 1851–1901 individual census returns for North Orkney (archived at Orkney Library and Archive) and Barclay (1965).

Figure 3. Crude birth rates (CBR) and crude death rates (CDR), North Orkney and Scotland

Note: Dotted vertical line indicates end of study period Source: Aggregate census reports of Scotland, archived at Orkney County Library and Archive

Figure 4. Time series of Orkney County prices of black oats, per unit of 140 Imperial Pounds, in Pounds Sterling

Note: Dotted lines indicate study period. Source: Fiars (grain) prices for Orkney County, archived at the Orkney Library and Archive.

Figure 5. Detrended prices of black oats using H-P filter

Note: Dotted lines indicate study period. Source: As for Figure 4