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. 2018 Feb;67(2):600-611.
doi: 10.1002/hep.29498. Epub 2017 Dec 23.

Projections of primary liver cancer to 2030 in 30 countries worldwide

Patricia C Valery  1   2 , Mathieu Laversanne  3 , Paul J Clark  1   2   4   5 , Jessica L Petrick  6 , Katherine A McGlynn  6 , Freddie Bray  3
Affiliations

Projections of primary liver cancer to 2030 in 30 countries worldwide

Patricia C Valery et al. Hepatology. 2018 Feb.

Abstract

Primary liver cancer (PLC) is the sixth most common cancer worldwide and the second most common cause of cancer death. Future predictions can inform health planners and raise awareness of the need for cancer control action. We predicted the future burden of PLC in 30 countries around 2030. Incident cases of PLC (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, C22) were obtained from 30 countries for 1993-2007. We projected new PLC cases to 2030 using age-period-cohort models (NORDPRED software). Age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated by country and sex. Increases in new cases and rates of PLC are projected in both sexes. The largest increases in rates are, among men, in Norway (2.9% per annum), US whites (2.6%), and Canada (2.4%) and, among women, in the United States (blacks 4.0%), Switzerland (3.4%), and Germany (3.0%). The projected declines are in China, Japan, Singapore, and parts of Europe (e.g., Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia). A 35% increase in the number of new cases annually is expected compared to 2005. This increasing burden reflects both increasing rates (and the underlying prevalence of risk factors) and demographic changes. Japan is the only country with a predicted decline in the net number of cases and annual rates by 2030. Conclusion: Our reporting of a projected increase in PLC incidence to 2030 in 30 countries serves as a baseline for anticipated declines in the longer term through the control of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infections by vaccination and treatment; however, the prospect that rising levels of obesity and its metabolic complications may lead to an increased risk of PLC that potentially offsets these gains is a concern. (Hepatology 2018;67:600-611).

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: There are no financial disclosures.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Trends in primary liver cancer incidence rates in 30 countries 1990–2030: observed age-standardised rates per 100,000 (solid lines) versus predicted rates (dashed lines), by region and by sex (age-standardised rates per 100,000 men/women)
Figure 2
Figure 2
Primary liver cancer age-standardised incidence rates per 100,000 in men and women in 2005 and predicted rates circa 2030 in 30 countries
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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