Comparison of traditional diabetes risk scores and HbA1c to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in a population based cohort study

Abstract

Aims: Compare performances of diabetes risk scores and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) to estimate the risk of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Northeast Germany.

Methods: We studied 2916 subjects (20 to 81years) from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) in a 5-year follow-up period. Diabetes risk scores included the Cooperative Health Research in the Region of Augsburg (KORA) base model, the Danish diabetes risk score and the Data from the Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance syndrome (D.E.S.I.R) clinical risk score. We assessed the performance of each of the diabetes risk scores and the HbA1c for 5-year risk of T2DM by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots.

Results: In SHIP, the incidence of T2DM was 5.4% (n=157) in the 5-year follow-up period. Diabetes risk scores and HbA1c achieved AUCs ranging from 0.76 for the D.E.S.I.R. clinical risk score to 0.82 for the KORA base model. For diabetes risk scores, the discriminative ability was lower for the age group 55 to 74years. For HbA1c, the discriminative ability also decreased for the group 55 to 74years while it was stable in the age group 30 to 64years old.

Conclusions: All diabetes risk scores and the HbA1c showed a good prediction for the risk of T2DM in SHIP. Which model or biomarker should be used is driven by its context of use, e.g. the practicability, implementation of interventions and availability of measurement.

Keywords: Epidemiology; Health care delivery; Prediction of diabetes; Prevention of diabetes; Screening.