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. 2017 Sep 11;17(1):615.
doi: 10.1186/s12879-017-2712-2.

The predictors of 3- and 30-day mortality in 660 MERS-CoV patients

Anwar E Ahmed  1
Affiliations

The predictors of 3- and 30-day mortality in 660 MERS-CoV patients

Anwar E Ahmed. BMC Infect Dis. .

Abstract

Background: The mortality rate of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) patients is a major challenge in all healthcare systems worldwide. Because the MERS-CoV risk-standardized mortality rates are currently unavailable in the literature, the author concentrated on developing a method to estimate the risk-standardized mortality rates using MERS-CoV 3- and 30-day mortality measures.

Methods: MERS-CoV data in Saudi Arabia is publicly reported and made available through the Saudi Ministry of Health (SMOH) website. The author studied 660 MERS-CoV patients who were reported by the SMOH between December 2, 2014 and November 12, 2016. The data gathered contained basic demographic information (age, gender, and nationality), healthcare worker, source of infection, pre-existing illness, symptomatic, severity of illness, and regions in Saudi Arabia. The status and date of mortality were also reported. Cox-proportional hazard (CPH) models were applied to estimate the hazard ratios for the predictors of 3- and 30-day mortality.

Results: 3-day, 30-day, and overall mortality were found to be 13.8%, 28.3%, and 29.8%, respectively. According to CPH, multivariate predictors of 3-day mortality were elderly, non-healthcare workers, illness severity, and hospital-acquired infections (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) =1.7; 8.8; 6.5; and 2.8, respectively). Multivariate predictors of 30-day mortality were elderly, non-healthcare workers, pre-existing illness, severity of illness, and hospital-acquired infections (aHR =1.7; 19.2; 2.1; 3.7; and 2.9, respectively).

Conclusions: Several factors were identified that could influence mortality outcomes at 3 days and 30 days, including age (elderly), non-healthcare workers, severity of illness, and hospital-acquired infections. The findings can serve as a guide for healthcare practitioners by appropriately identifying and managing potential patients at high risk of death.

Keywords: Camels; Elderly; MERS-CoV; Mortality; Saudi Arabia.

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Conflict of interest statement

Authors’ information

College of Public Health and Health Informatics, King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Ethics approval and consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent for publication

The author read and approved the final manuscript.

Competing interests

The author has no competing interests to declare.

Publisher’s Note

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Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
3-day survival by elderly and healthcare workers in MERS-CoV patients
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
30-day survival by elderly and healthcare workers in MERS-CoV patients
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
3-day survival by severity of illness and pre-existing illness in MERS-CoV patients
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
30-day survival by severity of illness and pre-existing illness in MERS-CoV patients
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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