[Analysis on epidemiology and spatial-temporal clustering of human brucellosis in Fujian province, 2011-2016]

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution of human brucellosis in Fujian province during 2011-2016, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of the disease. Methods: The surveillance data of human brucellosis in Fujian during 2011-2016 was analyzed with software R 3.3.1, ArcGIS 10.3.1, GeoDa 1.8.8 and SaTScan 9.4.3. Results: During 2011-2016, a total of 319 human brucellosis cases were reported, the incidence increased year by year (F=11.838, P=0.026) with the annual incidence of 0.14/100 000. The male to female rate ratio of the incidence was 2.50 ∶ 1. Farmers and herdsmen accounted for 57.37%. The incidence was 0.40/100 000 in Zhangzhou and 0.32/100 000 in Nanping, which were higher than other areas. The number of affected counties (district) increased from 12 in 2011 to 28 in 2016, showing a significant increase (F=13.447, P=0.021). The Moran's I of brucellosis in Fujian between January 2011 and December 2016 was 0.045, indicating the presence of a high value or low value clustering areas. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that, high-high clustering area (hot spots) were distributed in Zhangpu, Longhai, Longwen, etc, while high-low clustering areas were distributed in Nan'an and Jiaocheng, etc. Temporal scanning showed that there were three clustering areas in areas with high incidence, the most possible clustering, occurring during January 1, 2013- December 31,2015, covered 6 counties, including Yunxiao, Pinghe, Longhai, etc, and Zhangpu was the center, (RR=7.96, LLR=92.62, P<0.001). Conclusions: The epidemic of human brucellosis in Fujian is becoming serious, and has spread to general population and non-epidemic areas. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of human brucellosis in areas at high risk.

Keywords: Brucellosis; Epidemiology; Spatial autocorrelation; Spatial-temporal cluster; Spatial-temporal scanning.