Persistently high early mortality despite rapid diagnostics for drug-resistant tuberculosis cases in South Africa

Abstract

Objective: To describe the timing and predictors of mortality among multidrug- and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) patients reported in the South African electronic drug-resistant TB register (EDRweb), 2012-2014.

Design: We present time-to-event survival analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. Identity numbers were matched to the National Vital Statistics Register.

Results: Of the 20 653 patients included in the analysis (median age 35 years, interquartile range 28-43), over half were male (n = 10 944, 53.0%). Most were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive (n = 14 174, 68.9%), most of whom were on antiretroviral therapy (ART; n = 12 471, 88.0%). At 24 months, 4689 patients had died (22.7%); 2072 deaths (44.2%) were reported within 12 weeks of initiating treatment for MDR/RR-TB. From week 12 to week 24, there were 717 deaths/18 048 persons; 59.5% of mortality occurred within the first 24 weeks. During the first 12 weeks, the adjusted hazard rate (aHR) for mortality was highest among patients with a missing baseline culture result (aHR 3.78, 95%CI 2.94-4.86) and among HIV-positive, ART-naïve patients (aHR 3.40, 95%CI 2.90-3.99). Patients initiating MDR/RR-TB treatment within 4 weeks of diagnosis had higher mortality than those with delayed initiation (aHR 1.57, 95%CI 1.41-1.75).

Conclusion: In EDRweb, mortality is highest in the first few weeks after MDR/RR-TB treatment initiation.