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. 2017 Sep 18;7(9):e015941.
doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-015941.

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study

Han Cao  1   2 , Jing Wang  1   3 , Yichen Li  3 , Dongyang Li  3 , Jin Guo  1 , Yifei Hu  4 , Kai Meng  5 , Dian He  1 , Bin Liu  1   2 , Zheng Liu  1   2 , Han Qi  1   2 , Ling Zhang  1   2
Affiliations

Trend analysis of mortality rates and causes of death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China from 1992 to 2015 and forecast of mortality into the future: an entire population-based epidemiological study

Han Cao et al. BMJ Open. .

Abstract

Objectives: To analyse trends in mortality and causes of death among children aged under 5 years in Beijing, China between 1992 and 2015 and to forecast under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) for the period 2016-2020.

Methods: An entire population-based epidemiological study was conducted. Data collection was based on the Child Death Reporting Card of the Beijing Under-5 Mortality Rate Surveillance Network. Trends in mortality and leading causes of death were analysed using the χ2 test and SPSS 19.0 software. An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to forecast U5MRs between 2016 and 2020 using the EViews 8.0 software.

Results: Mortality in neonates, infants and children aged under 5 years decreased by 84.06%, 80.04% and 80.17% from 1992 to 2015, respectively. However, the U5MR increased by 7.20% from 2013 to 2015. Birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities comprised the top five causes of death. The greatest, most rapid reduction was that of pneumonia by 92.26%, with an annual average rate of reduction of 10.53%. The distribution of causes of death differed among children of different ages. Accidental asphyxia and sepsis were among the top five causes of death in children aged 28 days to 1 year and accident was among the top five causes in children aged 1-4 years. The U5MRs in Beijing are projected to be 2.88‰, 2.87‰, 2.90‰, 2.97‰ and 3.09‰ for the period 2016-2020, based on the predictive model.

Conclusion: Beijing has made considerable progress in reducing U5MRs from 1992 to 2015. However, U5MRs could show a slight upward trend from 2016 to 2020. Future considerations for child healthcare include the management of birth asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm/low birth weight and other congenital abnormalities. Specific preventative measures should be implemented for children of various age groups.

Keywords: autoregressive integrated moving average model; leading causes of death; under-5 mortality rate.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Age composition of the death in children under 5 years old in Beijing, China, 1992–2015.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Trends in cause-specific mortality rates among children of different ages in Beijing, China, 1992–2015: (A) children under 5 yers old; (B) neonates (<28 days); (C) 28 days to <1 year; (D) 1–4 years.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Prediction of ARIMA (1,1,1) model. UCL, upper control limit; LCL, lower control limit.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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