Further stabilization and even decrease in the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity in German children and adolescents from 2005 to 2015: a cross-sectional and trend analysis

Abstract

Objective: Recently several industrialized countries reported a stabilization or even a decrease in childhood overweight and obesity prevalence rates. In Germany, this trend started in 2004. The present study therefore aimed to evaluate whether this trend has continued or even leads in a clear direction. Design/Setting/Subjects BMI (>90th percentile (overweight), >97th percentile (obesity)) from the CrescNet database was analysed in 326 834 children and adolescents according to three age groups (4-7·99, 8-11·99 and 12-16 years), gender and between time points (2005-2015).

Results: Trend analysis from 2005 to 2010 demonstrated that the prevalence of overweight and obesity decreased significantly in boys and girls in the entire group (4-16 years) and in 4-7·99-year-olds. From 2010 to 2015 there was a significant decrease in boys for overweight and obesity in the entire group and for overweight among 8-11·99-year-olds. Within the cross-sectional analysis, prevalence rates for overweight decreased significantly for both genders in the age groups of 4-7·99 and 8-11·99 years (2005 v. 2015). For obesity, prevalence rates showed a significant decrease for boys (2005 v. 2015) and girls (2005 v. 2010) in 4-7·99-year-olds.

Conclusions: We observed a further stabilization of overweight and obesity prevalence rates for all age groups and even a decrease in the rates for the younger ages (4-7·99 years, 8-11·99 years). As other industrialized countries have also reported similar trends, it seems that the epidemic of childhood overweight and obesity is reaching a turning point in the industrial part of the world.

Keywords: Adolescents; Childhood obesity; Prevalence; Stabilizing trend; Trend analysis.

Fig. 1

Further stabilization of the prevalence rates and even a decrease of the prevalence of overweight and obesity for the younger age groups of German children and adolescents from 2005 to 2015. Trends of overweight (■, upper line) and obesity (♦, lower line) prevalence rates, with their 95% CI represented by vertical bars, between 2005 and 2015 for: the entire age group (4–16-year-old children) separately for boys (a) and girls (b); the age group of 4–7·99 years separately for boys (c) and girls (d); the age group of 8–11·99 years separately for boys (e) and girls (f); and the age group of 12–16 years separately for boys (g) and girls (h). The thin jagged lines show the calculations of the prevalence rates for every single day of the period based on raw values taken from the CrescNet database and straightened with a running mean with a 5 % window. The broad, black and smooth lines show a weighted smooth spline with six degrees of freedom. Slope is given for each age group, both genders, and every overweight or obesity group. Each slope, which is marked with black line, included and compared data of five years (2005–2010 and 2010–2015). Differences in prevalence: *P<0·05, **P<0·001