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. 2017 Sep 21;22(38):30615.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.38.30615.

Burden of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis: a time series analysis, Belgium, 2012 to 2020

Charline Maertens de Noordhout  1 , Brecht Devleesschauwer  2 , Juanita A Haagsma  3 , Arie H Havelaar  4   5 , Sophie Bertrand  2 , Olivier Vandenberg  6 , Sophie Quoilin  2 , Patrick T Brandt  7 , Niko Speybroeck  1
Affiliations

Burden of salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis: a time series analysis, Belgium, 2012 to 2020

Charline Maertens de Noordhout et al. Euro Surveill. .

Abstract

Salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis are food-borne diseases. We estimated and forecasted the number of cases of these three diseases in Belgium from 2012 to 2020, and calculated the corresponding number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The salmonellosis time series was fitted with a Bai and Perron two-breakpoint model, while a dynamic linear model was used for campylobacteriosis and a Poisson autoregressive model for listeriosis. The average monthly number of cases of salmonellosis was 264 (standard deviation (SD): 86) in 2012 and predicted to be 212 (SD: 87) in 2020; campylobacteriosis case numbers were 633 (SD: 81) and 1,081 (SD: 311); listeriosis case numbers were 5 (SD: 2) in 2012 and 6 (SD: 3) in 2014. After applying correction factors, the estimated DALYs for salmonellosis were 102 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 8-376) in 2012 and predicted to be 82 (95% UI: 6-310) in 2020; campylobacteriosis DALYs were 1,019 (95% UI: 137-3,181) and 1,736 (95% UI: 178-5,874); listeriosis DALYs were 208 (95% UI: 192-226) in 2012 and 252 (95% UI: 200-307) in 2014. New actions are needed to reduce the risk of food-borne infection with Campylobacter spp. because campylobacteriosis incidence may almost double through 2020.

Keywords: Belgium; DALYs; Salmonellosis; burden; campylobacteriosis; listeriosis; prediction; time series.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Seasonal-trend-loess (STL) decomposition of monthly Belgian campylobacteriosis data, Belgium, 1993–2013
Figure 2
Figure 2
Outcome trees used for disability-adjusted life year calculations of campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis and listeriosis (acquired and perinatal), Belgium
Figure 3
Figure 3
Monthly observed and forecasted salmonellosis cases, Belgium, 2001–2020
Figure 4
Figure 4
Monthly confirmed salmonellosis cases by species, Belgium, 2001–2012
Figure 5
Figure 5
Fitted dynamic linear model (DLM) and decomposition for the Belgian campylobacteriosis series, Belgium, 1993–2013
Figure 6
Figure 6
Monthly observed and forecasted campylobacteriosis cases, Belgium, 1993–2020
Figure 7
Figure 7
Monthly observed and forecasted listeriosis cases, Belgium, 2011–2014
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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