Remission of chronic headache: Rates, potential predictors and the role of medication, follow-up results of the German Headache Consortium (GHC) Study

Abstract

Objectives To estimate remission rates of chronic headache (CH), focusing on potential predictors of headache remission and medication. Methods We used data from the longitudinal population-based German Headache Consortium (GHC) Study (n = 9,944, 18-65 years). Validated questionnaires were used at baseline (t₀, 2003-2007, response rate: 55.2%), first follow-up after 1.87 ± 0.39 years (t₁, 37.2%) and second follow-up after 3.26 ± 0.60 years (t₂, 38.8%) to assess headache type and frequency, use of analgesics and anti-migraine drugs, medication overuse, education, BMI, smoking and alcohol consumption. CH was defined as ≥ 15 headache days/month at t₀ over three months. Outcomes were: CH remission (<15 headache days/month at both follow-ups), CH persistence (≥ 15 headache days/month at both follow-ups); all others were considered as partially remitted. To estimate predictors of remission, univariate and multiple logistic regression were calculated. Results At baseline, 255 (2.6%) participants were identified with CH. Of these, 158 (62.0%) participants responded at both follow-ups. Remission was observed in 58.2% of participants, partial remission in 17.7% and persistence in 24.1%. Remission was associated with female sex (adjusted odds ratio: 3.10, 95% confidence interval: 1.06-9.08) and no medication overuse (4.16, 1.45-11.94) compared to participants with persistent CH; participants with higher headache frequency at t₀ were less likely to remit (0.90, 0.84-0.97). Medication, age, education, BMI, smoking and drinking showed no effects on remission. Similar results were observed for partial remission. Conclusion The majority of CH participants remitted from CH. Female sex, no overuse of pain medication and lower headache frequency were associated with remission.

Keywords: Migraine; cohort study; headache frequency; longitudinal population-based study; medication overuse; tension type headache.