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. 2016 Oct 25;1(3):122-126.
doi: 10.1136/svn-2016-000025. eCollection 2016 Sep.

Validation of risk scoring models for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia in patients with ischaemic stroke

Siyin Gong  1 , Zhiwei Zhou  1 , Muke Zhou  1 , Zhao Lei  1 , Jian Guo  1 , Ning Chen  1 , Li He  1
Affiliations

Validation of risk scoring models for predicting stroke-associated pneumonia in patients with ischaemic stroke

Siyin Gong et al. Stroke Vasc Neurol. .

Abstract

Objective: Various risk scoring models have been developed to predict stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP). We aim to determine whether these risk models could effectively predict SAP in Chinese patients with ischaemic stroke (IS).

Methods: Consecutive patients with IS in West China hospital between January 2011 and September 2013 were included to assess the predictive performance of risk scoring models, including Chumbler's score, A2DS2 and AISAPS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to evaluate the performance of each risk model in predicting pneumonia.

Results: A total of 1569 consecutive patients with IS within 30 days of onset in West China hospital were included. The incidence of pneumonia is 15.3%. The AUROC of Chumbler's score, A2DS2 and AISAPS was 0.659, 0.728 and 0.758, respectively, and AISAPS had the highest AUROC.

Conclusions: A2DS2 and AISAPS had acceptable discriminatory abilities to predict SAP in Chinese patients with IS within 30 days of onset.

Keywords: Ischemic Stroke; Pneumonia; Risk scoring model.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
The AUROC of each risk model. (A). The AUROC of Chumbler's score; (B). The AUROC of A2DS2; (C). The AUROC of AISAPS; (D). The comparison of AUROC of three risk models. AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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