Short-term risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C virus eradication following direct-acting anti-viral treatment

Abstract

Background: With the development of direct-acting anti-virals (DAAs), almost all patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can achieve sustained viral response (SVR).

Aim: To evaluate the short-term risk of HCC among patients with SVR by DAAs, including those with cirrhosis or previous HCC.

Methods: This large-scale, multicentre cohort study included 1,675 consecutive patients who achieved SVR by treatment with interferon-free sofosbuvir-based regimens, divided into groups with (n = 152) or without previous HCC (n = 1,523). The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard analysis were used to calculate the cumulative HCC incidence and related factors of HCC.

Results: During the follow-up period (median: 17 months), 46 (2.7%) patients developed HCC. The 1-year cumulative rates of de novo HCC were 0.4% and 4.9% for the noncirrhosis and cirrhosis groups respectively (log-rank test: P < 0.001). For cirrhotic patients, serum α-fetoprotein level at the end of treatment (EOT-AFP) was the strongest predictor of de novo HCC. The 1-year cumulative de novo HCC rates were 1.4% and 13.1% in the EOT-AFP < 9.0 ng/mL and ≥ 9.0 ng/mL groups (cut-off value) respectively (log-rank test: P < 0.001). The 1-year cumulative rates of HCC recurrence were 6.5% and 23.1% for the noncirrhosis and cirrhosis groups respectively (log-rank test: P = 0.023). For cirrhotic patients, previous HCC characteristics were significantly associated with HCC recurrence. In contrast, sex, age and metabolic features did not influence de novo HCC or recurrence.

Conclusions: For cirrhotic patients after elimination of HCV, serum EOT-AFP level and previous HCC characteristics would be useful markers for predicting de novo HCC or recurrence.