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. 2018 Apr;108(S2):S137-S143.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2017.304123. Epub 2017 Oct 26.

Green Space and Deaths Attributable to the Urban Heat Island Effect in Ho Chi Minh City

Tran Ngoc Dang  1 , Doan Quang Van  1 , Hiroyuki Kusaka  1 , Xerxes T Seposo  1 , Yasushi Honda  1
Affiliations

Green Space and Deaths Attributable to the Urban Heat Island Effect in Ho Chi Minh City

Tran Ngoc Dang et al. Am J Public Health. 2018 Apr.

Abstract

Objectives: To quantify heat-related deaths in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, caused by the urban heat island (UHI) and explore factors that may alleviate the impact of UHIs.

Methods: We estimated district-specific meteorological conditions from 2010 to 2013 using the dynamic downscaling model and calculated the attributable fraction and number of mortalities resulting from the total, extreme, and mild heat in each district. The difference in attributable fraction of total heat between the central and outer districts was classified as the attributable fraction resulting from the UHI. The association among attributable fraction, attributable number with a green space, population density, and budget revenue of each district was then explored.

Results: The temperature-mortality relationship between the central and outer areas was almost identical. The attributable fraction resulting from the UHI was 0.42%, which was contributed by the difference in temperature distribution between the 2 areas. Every 1-square-kilometer increase in green space per 1000 people can prevent 7.4 deaths caused by heat.

Conclusions: Green space can alleviate the impacts of UHIs, although future studies conducting a heath economic evaluation of tree planting are warranted.

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Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Heat-Related Mortality Risk Functions Between Central vs Outer Area in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 2010–2013 Note. RR = relative risk. The red line is the pooled estimate for the central districts, and the blue line is the pooled estimate for the outer districts. The shaded area is the 95% confidence interval.
FIGURE 2—
FIGURE 2—
Attributable Fractions (%) and Their 95% Empirical Confidence Intervals of Districts Grouped Into Central and Outer Area for (a) Total Heat, (b) Extreme Heat, and (c) Mild Heat: Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 2010–2013 Note. Dist = district. Central districts are in red, and outer districts are in green.
FIGURE 3—
FIGURE 3—
Linear Relationship Between Mortality Attributable Fractions (AFs) Resulting From Total Heat and (a) Green Space, (b) Population Density, and (c) District Budget: Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, 2010–2013 Note. VND = Vietnamese dong. Each point represents a district.
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