Incidence and mortality of lung cancer: global trends and association with socioeconomic status

Abstract

We examined the correlation between lung cancer incidence/mortality and country-specific socioeconomic development, and evaluated its most recent global trends. We retrieved its age-standardized incidence rates from the GLOBOCAN database, and temporal patterns were assessed from global databases. We employed simple linear regression analysis to evaluate their correlations with Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The average annual percent changes (AAPC) of the trends were evaluated from join-point regression analysis. Country-specific HDI was strongly correlated with age-standardized incidence (r = 0.70) and mortality (r = 0.67), and to a lesser extent GDP (r = 0.24 to 0.55). Among men, 22 and 30 (out of 38 and 36) countries showed declining incidence and mortality trends, respectively; whilst among women, 19 and 16 countries showed increasing incidence and mortality trends, respectively. Among men, the AAPCs ranged from -2.8 to -0.6 (incidence) and -3.6 to -1.1 (mortality) in countries with declining trend, whereas among women the AAPC range was 0.4 to 8.9 (incidence) and 1 to 4.4 (mortality) in countries with increasing trend. Among women, Brazil, Spain and Cyprus had the greatest incidence increase, and all countries in Western, Southern and Eastern Europe reported increasing mortality. These findings highlighted the need for targeted preventive measures.

Figure 1

(A) Correlation between age-standardized lung cancer incidence (left) and mortality (right) and Human Development Index (HDI) (Male). (B) Correlation between age-standardized lung cancer incidence (left) and mortality (right) and Human Development Index (HDI) (Female).

Figure 2

(A) Correlation between age-standardized lung cancer incidence (left) and mortality (right) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (Male). (B) Correlation between age-standardized lung cancer incidence (left) and mortality (right) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (Female).

Figure 3

(A) The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) in the incidence of lung cancer in men (left) and women (right) in the most recent 10 years (the numbers in parentheses represent the 95% confidence intervals of the Average Annual Percentage Change). (B) The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) in the mortality of lung cancer in men (left) and women (right) in the most recent 10 years (the numbers in parentheses represent the 95% confidence intervals of the Average Annual Percentage Change).