An explosive point-source measles outbreak in a highly vaccinated population. Modes of transmission and risk factors for disease

Abstract

In 1985, 69 secondary cases, all in one generation, occurred in an Illinois high school after exposure to a vigorously coughing index case. The school's 1,873 students had a pre-outbreak vaccination level of 99.7% by school records. The authors studied the mode of transmission and the risk factors for disease in this unusual outbreak. There were no school assemblies and little or no air recirculation during the schooldays that exposure occurred. Contact interviews were completed with 58 secondary cases (84%); only 11 secondary cases (19%) of these may have had exposure to the index case in the classrooms, buses, or out of school. With the use of the Reed-Frost epidemic model, only 22-65% of the secondary cases were likely to have had at least one person-to-person contact with the index case during class exchanges, suggesting that this mode of transmission alone could not explain this outbreak. A comparison of the first 45 cases and 90 matched controls suggested that cases were less likely than controls to have provider-verifiable school vaccination records (odds ratio (OR) = 8.1) and more likely to have been vaccinated at less than age 12 months (OR = 8.6) or at age 12-14 months (OR = 7.0). Despite high vaccination levels, explosive measles outbreaks may occur in secondary schools due to 1) airborne measles transmission, 2) high contact rates, 3) inaccurate school vaccination records, or 4) inadequate immunity from vaccinations at younger ages.