Risk prediction in post-infarction patients with moderately reduced left ventricular ejection fraction by combined assessment of the sympathetic and vagal cardiac autonomic nervous system

Abstract

Aim: Most deaths after myocardial infarction (MI) occur in patients with normal or moderately reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF >35%). Periodic repolarization dynamics (PRD) and deceleration capacity (DC) are novel ECG-based markers related to sympathetic and vagal cardiac autonomic nervous system activity. Here, we test the combination of PRD and DC to predict risk in post-infarction patients with LVEF >35%.

Methods and results: We included 823 survivors of acute MI with LVEF >35%, aged ≤80years and in sinus rhythm. PRD and DC were obtained from 30-min ECG-recordings within the second week after index infarction and dichotomized at established cut-off values of ≥5.75deg² and ≤2.5ms, respectively. Patients were classified as having normal (CAF 0), partly abnormal (DC or PRD abnormal; CAF 1) or abnormal cardiac autonomic function (DC and PRD abnormal; CAF 2). Primary endpoint was 5-year all-cause mortality. Within the first 5years of follow-up, 51 patients died (6.2%). PRD and DC effectively stratified patients into low-risk (CAF 0; n=562), intermediate-risk (CAF 1; n=193) and high-risk patients (CAF 2; n=68) with cumulative 5-year mortality rates of 2.9%, 9.4% and 25.2%, respectively (p<0.001). On multivariable analyses, CAF was independent from established risk factors (GRACE-score, diabetes mellitus, mean heart rate, heart rate variability). Addition of CAF significantly improved the model (increase of C-statistics from 0.732 (0.651-0.812) to 0.777 (0.703-0.850), p=0.047; continuous NRI (0.400, 95% CI 0.230-0.560, p<0.001); IDI (0.056, 95% CI 0.022-0.122, p<0.001)).

Conclusion: CAF identifies new high-risk post-MI patients with LVEF >35% which might benefit from prophylactic strategies.

Keywords: Autonomic dysfunction; Deceleration capacity; Myocardial infarction; Periodic repolarization dynamics; Risk stratification; Sudden cardiac death.