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. 2018 Jan;108(1):87-92.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2017.304099. Epub 2017 Nov 21.

Meeting the Institute of Medicine's 2030 US Life Expectancy Target

David Kindig  1 , Jenna Nobles  1 , Moheb Zidan  1
Affiliations

Meeting the Institute of Medicine's 2030 US Life Expectancy Target

David Kindig et al. Am J Public Health. 2018 Jan.

Abstract

Objectives: To quantify the improvement in US life expectancy required to reach parity with high-resource nations by 2030, to document historical precedent of this rate, and to discuss the plausibility of achieving this rate in the United States.

Methods: We performed a demographic analysis of secondary data in 5-year periods from 1985 to 2015.

Results: To achieve the United Nations projected mortality estimates for Western Europe in 2030, the US life expectancy must grow at 0.32% a year between 2016 and 2030. This rate has precedent, even in low-mortality populations. Over 204 country-periods examined, nearly half exhibited life-expectancy growth greater than 0.32%. Of the 51 US states observed, 8.2% of state-periods demonstrated life-expectancy growth that exceeded the 0.32% target.

Conclusions: Achieving necessary growth in life expectancy over the next 15 years despite historical precedent will be challenging. Much all-cause mortality is structured decades earlier and, at present, older-age mortality reductions in the United States are decelerating. Addressing mortality decline at all ages will require enhanced political will and a strong commitment to equity improvement in the US population.

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Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Life Expectancy at Birth by Period, Observed and Projected Among (a) Women and (b) Men: United States and Western Europe, 1950–2035 Source. United Nations Population Division. Note. Estimates following 2010 are United Nations projections.
FIGURE 2—
FIGURE 2—
Life Expectancy at Birth by Period, Observed, Projected, and Necessary for Parity Among (a) Women and (b) Men: United States, 1985–2035 Source. United Nations Population Division. Note. Estimates following 2010 are United Nations projections. The dashed line represents author calculations of US life expectancy needed to reach United Nations projection of life expectancy in Western European nations in 2030–2035.
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