Value of the Electrocardiographic (P Wave, T Wave, QRS) Axis as a Predictor of Mortality in 14 Years in a Population With a High Prevalence of Chagas Disease from the Bambuí Cohort Study of Aging

Abstract

We sought to investigate the prognostic value of the electrocardiogram (ECG) electrical axes (P wave, T wave and QRS) as predictors of mortality in the 14-year follow-up of the prospective cohort of all residents ≥60 years living in the southeastern Brazilian city of Bambuí, a population with high prevalence of Chagas disease (ChD). Baseline ECG axes were automatically measured with normal values defined as follows: P-wave axis 0° to 75°, QRS axis -30° to 90°, and T axis 15° to 75°. Participants underwent annual follow-up visits and death was verified using death certificates. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the prognostic value of ECG axes for all-cause mortality, after adjustment for potential confounders. From 1,742 qualifying residents, 1,462 were enrolled, of whom 557 (38.1%) had ChD. Mortality rate was 51.9%. In multivariable adjusted models, abnormal P-wave axis was associated with a 48% (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.48 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-1.88]) increased mortality risk in patients with ChD and 43% (HR = 1.43 [CI 1.13-1.81]) in patients without ChD. Abnormal QRS axis was associated with a 34% (HR = 1.34 [CI 1.04-1.73]) increased mortality risk in patients with ChD, but not in individuals without ChD. Similarly, in the ChD group, abnormal T-wave axis was associated with a 35% (HR = 1.35 [CI 1.07-1.71]) increased mortality, but not in patients without ChD. In conclusion, abnormal P-wave, QRS, and T-wave axes were associated with increased all-cause mortality in patients with ChD. Abnormal P-wave axis was associated with mortality also among those without ChD, being the strongest predictor among ECG variables.