Post-Disaster Fertility: Hurricane Katrina and the Changing Racial Composition of New Orleans

Abstract

Large-scale climate events can have enduring effects on population size and composition. Natural disasters affect population fertility through multiple mechanisms, including displacement, demand for children, and reproductive care access. Fertility effects, in turn, influence the size and composition of new birth cohorts, extending the reach of climate events across generations. We study these processes in New Orleans during the decade spanning Hurricane Katrina. We combine census data, ACS data, and vital statistics data to describe fertility in New Orleans and seven comparison cities. Following Katrina, displacement contributed to a 30% decline in birth cohort size. Black fertility fell, and remained 4% below expected values through 2010. By contrast, white fertility increased by 5%. The largest share of births now occurs to white women. These fertility differences-beyond migration-driven population change-generate additional pressure on the renewal of New Orleans as a city in which the black population is substantially smaller in the disaster's wake.

Figure 1

Birth Cohort Size by Mothers’ Racial and Ethnic Categorization for New Orleans Metro Area and Major Comprising Parishes, 2000–2010 A. New Orleans Metro Area Source: Geocoded birth certificate records, National Center for Health Statistics. Note: The New Orleans metro area is composed of seven parishes. Two of the seven, Orleans and Jefferson, accounted for 70% of the metro-area population during the 2000 Census. B. Three Most Populous New Orleans Metro Parishes

Figure 1

Birth Cohort Size by Mothers’ Racial and Ethnic Categorization for New Orleans Metro Area and Major Comprising Parishes, 2000–2010 A. New Orleans Metro Area Source: Geocoded birth certificate records, National Center for Health Statistics. Note: The New Orleans metro area is composed of seven parishes. Two of the seven, Orleans and Jefferson, accounted for 70% of the metro-area population during the 2000 Census. B. Three Most Populous New Orleans Metro Parishes

Figure 2

Birth Cohort Size by Mother’s Hispanic Origin for New Orleans Metro Area 2000–2010

Figure 3

Total Fertility Rate by Racial Categorization for New Orleans Metro Area and Major Comprising Parishes, 2000–2010 Note: TFR calculated using birth records from geocoded birth certificate records, National Center for Health Statistics, and intercensal population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Figure 4

Composition of Birth Cohorts by Mother’s Race and Ethnicity, New Orleans Metropolitan Area Source: NCHS vital statistics data and U.S. Census Bureau intercensal population estimates. Notes: Estimates use counterfactual age specific fertility rates (ASFR), given in Eq. 3, or the fertility rates that would have been expected had fertility in New Orleans experienced the same period trends observed in comparison populations. (2) Estimates expected in the absence of the disaster are generated with New Orleans’ pre-disaster population of reproductive-age women subject to counterfactual ASFR. (3) Estimates for disaster composition effects only are generated with New Orleans’ post-disaster population of reproductive-age women subject to counterfactual ASFR values. (4) The observed births 2006–2010 are those observed in the vital statistics data; these reveal the disaster effects on both the composition of reproductive-age women and on the ASFR schedule.