A validation of the low mileage bias using naturalistic driving study data

Abstract

Introduction: This paper evaluated the low mileage bias (LMB) phenomenon for senior drivers using data mined from the Second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Naturalistic Driving Study. Supporters of the LMB construct postulate that it is only those seniors who drive the lowest annual mileage who are primarily responsible for the increased crash rates traditionally attributed to this population in general.

Method: The current analysis included 802 participants, all aged 65 or older who were involved in 163 property damage and injury crashes, and deemed to be at-fault in 123 (75%) of those instances. Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the association between annualized mileage driven and crash risk.

Results: Results show that the crash rate for drivers with lower annualized mileage (i.e., especially for those driving fewer than approximately 3000miles per year) was significantly higher than that of drivers with higher annualized mileage, and that 25% of the overall sample were low- mileage drivers according to this criterion. Data were also evaluated by gender and meta-age group (i.e., younger-old: 65-74 and older-old: 75-99), and the results were consistent across these sub-groups.

Conclusions: This study provides strong support for the existence of the LMB.

Practical applications: These results can help to reshape how transportation safety stakeholders view senior drivers in general and help them to focus their efforts on those seniors most in need of either risk-reducing countermeasures or alternative means of transportation.