Survival prediction in pancreatic cancer patients with no distant metastasis: a large-scale population-based estimate

Abstract

Aim: To identify the risk factors for overall survival (OS) of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients with no distant metastasis, and formulate a novel nomogram for prognostic prediction.

Patients & methods: Data were obtained from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients with no distant metastasis as the primary cohort, and 127 patients at our institution were enrolled as the validation cohort. The prognostic nomogram integrating all independent risk factors for predicting OS was established to achieve superior discriminatory ability.

Results: The constructed nomogram showed excellent performance and superior predictive accuracy for OS according to the concordance index and calibration curve.

Conclusion: One more advanced and accurate predictive model will be obtained to assist in risk stratification via the constructed nomogram.

Keywords: decision curve analysis; nomogram; pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma; prognosis.