Prediction of 5-year overall survival in cervical cancer patients treated with radical hysterectomy using computational intelligence methods

Abstract

Background: Computational intelligence methods, including non-linear classification algorithms, can be used in medical research and practice as a decision making tool. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of artificial intelligence models for 5-year overall survival prediction in patients with cervical cancer treated by radical hysterectomy.

Methods: The data set was collected from 102 patients with cervical cancer FIGO stage IA2-IIB, that underwent primary surgical treatment. Twenty-three demographic, tumor-related parameters and selected perioperative data of each patient were collected. The simulations involved six computational intelligence methods: the probabilistic neural network (PNN), multilayer perceptron network, gene expression programming classifier, support vector machines algorithm, radial basis function neural network and k-Means algorithm. The prediction ability of the models was determined based on the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, as well as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The results of the computational intelligence methods were compared with the results of linear regression analysis as a reference model.

Results: The best results were obtained by the PNN model. This neural network provided very high prediction ability with an accuracy of 0.892 and sensitivity of 0.975. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of PNN was also high, 0.818. The outcomes obtained by other classifiers were markedly worse.

Conclusions: The PNN model is an effective tool for predicting 5-year overall survival in cervical cancer patients treated with radical hysterectomy.

Keywords: 5–year overall survival; Cervical cancer; Computational intelligence methods; Probabilistic neural network.

Fig. 1

The receiver operating characteristic curves. Plots are shown for the models with AUROC>0.5