Baby Boomers and Beds: a Demographic Challenge for the Ages

Abstract

The United States is facing a significant demographic transition, with about 10,000 baby boomers turning age 65 each day. At the same time, the nation is experiencing a similarly striking transition in hospital capacity, as the supply of hospital beds has declined in recent decades. The juxtaposition of population aging and hospital capacity portends a potentially widening divergence between supply and demand for hospital care. We provide a closer look at current hospital capacity and a rethinking of the future role of hospital beds in meeting the needs of an aging population.

Figure 1

Population 65 years and older and hospital beds in the United States. Historical and projected population data are from the United States Census Bureau. Historical data on number of hospital beds are from the American Hospital Association annual surveys of hospitals. The number of hospital beds from 1960 and 1970 are from the article “The Nation’s Hospitals: A Statistical Profile,” Hospital Statistics. 1971. Aug 1;45(Part 2),447. Projected number of hospital beds after 2015 are calculated using three assumptions: (1) no further decline in hospital beds after 2015, (2) linear change at the post-2000 rate of decline, and (3) linear change at the overall rate of decline since 1960.