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. 2018 Feb 6;168(3):229-232.
doi: 10.7326/M17-2067. Epub 2018 Jan 2.

Preventing Lung Cancer Mortality by Computed Tomography Screening: The Effect of Risk-Based Versus U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Eligibility Criteria, 2005-2015

Li C Cheung  1 , Hormuzd A Katki  1 , Anil K Chaturvedi  1 , Ahmedin Jemal  2 , Christine D Berg  1
Affiliations

Preventing Lung Cancer Mortality by Computed Tomography Screening: The Effect of Risk-Based Versus U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Eligibility Criteria, 2005-2015

Li C Cheung et al. Ann Intern Med. .
No abstract available

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest: Dr. Christine Berg receives consulting fees from Medial ES, LLC, a company that is developing algorithms from routine blood tests that may indicate an increased risk of malignancy. Dr. Christine Berg has also received consulting fees from GRAIL, a company that is planning a clinical trial to evaluate their early stage cancer detection products. All other authors have no conflict of interests.

Figures

Figure 1:
Figure 1:
Estimated number of ever-smokers eligible for screening and percentage of all U.S. screen-preventable lung-cancer deaths averted by USPSTF and risk-based screen-eligibility criteria from 2005 to 2015 1a) Number of U.S. ever smokers, aged 50–80, in the years 2005, 2010, and 2015 who would have been eligible for screening with low-dose computed tomography by the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria and by 5-year lung-cancer risk-thresholds of 1.5%, 2%, and 2.5%. 2b) Percentage of screen-preventable lung cancer deaths among U.S. ever-smokers, aged 50–80, averted by United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) criteria or by 5-year lung-cancer risk-thresholds of 1.5%, 2%, and 2.5% in the years 2005, 2010, and 2015. For each NHIS survey year, we used 5 multiple imputation datasets to account for missing information on race, education, BMI, quit years, cigarettes smoked per day, years smoked, emphysema and family history of lung cancer (3). The following number of respondents were missing data for these items and are shown in parentheses: race (50/92/128), education (29/17/27), BMI (151/127/202), quit years (33/12/25), cigarettes smoked per day (252/366/512), years smoked (28/9/20), emphysema (5/9/13), and family history of lung cancer (146/102/846) for years 2005, 2010, and 2015, respectively. Horizontal lines indicate 95% confidence intervals.
Figure 2:
Figure 2:
Number of U.S. ever smokers in USPSTF screen eligible and ineligible subgroups from 2005–2015 USPSTF = U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Horizontal lines indicate 95% confidence intervals Median and interquartile range (IQR) of 5-year individual lung-cancer incidence and death risks, in the absence of CT screening, for smoking subgroups in 2015 are as followed: 30+ pack-years: Current smokers, age 55–80: 3.6% (2.2–6.4%) incidence / 2.2% (1.3–4.1%) death 30+ pack-years: Former smokers, age 55–80: 2.0% (1.2–3.4%) incidence / 1.2% (0.7–2.3%) death 30+ pack-years: Current smokers or quit<=15 years, age 50–55: 1.0% (0.7–1.4%) incidence / 0.4% (0.3–0.7%) death 30+ pack-years: Former smokers, quit 15–20 years, age 55–80: 1.4% (1.0–2.6%) incidence / 1.0% (0.6–1.9%) death 20–29 pack-years: Former smokers, quit <=15 years, age 55–80: 1.0% (0.4–1.5%) incidence / 0.5% (0.2–0.9%) death 20–29 pack-years: Current smokers, age 55–80: 1.8% (1.1–3.0%) incidence / 1.0% (0.6–1.7%) death Medians risks within subgroups in 2005 and 2010 are all within 0.2% of the 2015 estimates.
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References

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    1. Jemal A, Fedewa SA. Lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography in the United States – 2010 to 2015. JAMA Oncol Published online February 02, 2017. doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2016.6416 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
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    1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). National Health Interview Survey. CDC website; http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhis. 2017. Accessed October 30, 2017.
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