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Observational Study
. 2018 Jan 15;17(1):10.
doi: 10.1186/s12937-018-0320-7.

Predictors of overweight/obesity in a Brazilian cohort after 13 years of follow-up

Ludimila Garcia Souza  1 , Thiago Veiga Jardim  2   3 , Ana Carolina Rezende  2 , Ana Luiza Lima Sousa  2 , Humberto Graner Moreira  2 , Naiana Borges Perillo  2 , Samanta Garcia de Souza  2 , Weimar Kunz Sebba Barroso de Souza  2 , Ymara Cássia Luciana Araújo  2 , Maria do Rosário Gondim Peixoto  4 , Paulo César Brandão Veiga Jardim  2
Affiliations
Observational Study

Predictors of overweight/obesity in a Brazilian cohort after 13 years of follow-up

Ludimila Garcia Souza et al. Nutr J. .

Abstract

Background: Obesity is a chronic complex disease with an increasing prevalence around the world. Prospective studies in adult cohorts are needed to provide information about predictors of new-onset overweight/obesity on population-based levels. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with the risk of an adult individual become overweight/obese after 13 years of follow-up.

Methods: Second phase of an observational population-based prospective cohort study in a small town in the Midwest region of Brazil. A representative sample of the adult population (≥18 years) was assessed in 2002 (phase 1). Anthropometric, sociodemographic, dietary intake and lifestyle data were collected. After 13 years of follow-up (2015), the same variables were re-evaluated (phase 2). New-onset overweight/obesity was the outcome variable.

Results: A total of 685 subjects were included with a mean age in phase 1 of 42.7 ± 13.8 years and 56.1 ± 13.8 years in phase 2, the mean follow-up time was 13.2 years and female sex counted for 66.3% of the sample. Total weight gain was 5.9 ± 10.2 Kg, body mass index increased 2.6 ± 3.8 Kg/m2 and waist circumference (WC) values increased 8.0 ± 10.5 cm. The prevalence of overweight/obesity went from 49.1% in phase 1 to 69.8% in phase 2 (p < 0.001). The factors associated with a decreased risk of new-onset overweight/obesity were ages between 50 and 64 (RR 0.40; CI 0.24-0.67 - p = 0.001) and ≥65 years (RR 0.15; CI 0.06-0.35 - p < 0.001), being part of the second quartile of fat consumption (RR 0.59; CI 0.35-0.97 - p = 0.041), no alcohol consumption (RR 0.59; CI 0.37-0.93 - p = 0.024) and smoking (RR 0.58; CI 0.39-0.86 - p = 0,007) in phase 1.

Conclusions: We identified in thirteen years of follow-up that older ages, a moderate fat consumption compared to low consumption, no alcohol consumption and smoking habit were related to a decreased risk of new-onset overweight/obesity. Obesity prevention actions must focus on subjects at younger ages and include policies to reduce alcohol consumption.

Keywords: Body mass index; Obesity; Waist circumference; Weight gain.

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Conflict of interest statement

Ethics approval and consent to participate

This project was approved by the Ethics in Research Committee from the Federal University of Goias Clinics Hospital (CEP/HC-UFG) with the registration number 396.839. The study followed the humans research regulations according to the National Health Council Resolution number 466/2012. The interviews were conducted after the Consent Form had been signed.

Competing interests

The authors have no personal relationships that might inappropriately bias the article.

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Nutritional status evolution based on body mass index (n = 685). Firminopolis, Brazil (2002–2015). *Statistically significant at α = 0.05
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Nutritional status evolution based on waist circumference (n = 685). Firminopolis, Brazil (2002–2015). *Statistically significant at α = 0.05
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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