The prevalence of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD): A meta-analysis of European literature and prevalence evaluation in the Italian province of Modena suggest that ADPKD is a rare and underdiagnosed condition

Abstract

Background and objectives: ADPKD is erroneously perceived as a not rare condition, which is mainly due to the repeated citation of a mistaken interpretation of old epidemiological data, as reported in the Dalgaard's work (1957). Even if ADPKD is not a common condition, the correct prevalence of ADPKD in the general population is uncertain, with a wide range of estimations reported by different authors. In this work, we have performed a meta-analysis of available epidemiological data in the European literature. Furthermore we collected the diagnosis and clinical data of ADPKD in a province in the north of Italy (Modena). We describe the point and predicted prevalence of ADPKD, as well as the main clinical characteristics of ADPKD in this region.

Methods: We looked at the epidemiological data according to specific parameters and criteria in the Pubmed, CINAHL, Scopus and Web of Science databases. Data were summarized using linear regression analysis. We collected patients' diagnoses in the Province of Modena according to accepted clinical criteria and/or molecular analysis. Predicted prevalence has been calculated through a logistic regression prediction applied to the at-risk population.

Results: The average prevalence of ADPKD, as obtained from 8 epidemiological studies of sufficient quality, is 2.7: 10,000 (CI95 = 0.73-4.67). The point prevalence of ADPKD in the province of Modena is 3.63: 10,000 (CI95 = 3.010-3.758). On the basis of the collected pedigrees and identification of the at-risk subjects, the predicted prevalence in the Province of Modena is 4.76: 10,000 (CI 95% = 4.109-4.918).

Conclusion: As identified in our study, point prevalence is comparable with the majority of the studies of literature, while predicted prevalence (4.76: 10,000) generally appears higher than in the previous estimates of the literature, with a few exceptions. Thus, this could suggest that undiagnosed ADPKD subjects, as predicted by our approach, could be relevant and will most likely require more clinical attention. Nevertheless, our estimation, in addition to the averaged ones derived from literature, not exceeding the limit of 5:10,000 inhabitants, are compatible with the definition of rare disease adopted by the European Medicines Agency and Food and Drug Administration.

Fig 1. Flow of information through the different phases of the selection of available studies.

Fig 2. The figure depicts the predicted prevalence reported in the selected epidemiological studies[, , –16, 18, 22, 35].

Point prevalence was reported if predicted prevalence was not available. the dotted line indicates the limit of 5 cases: 10,000 inhabitants adopted by EMA to define rare disease.

Fig 3. Plot of the ADPKD subjects over the reference population reported in the selected articles ([, , –16, 18, 22, 35]).

Dashed line represents linear regression of the plotted points.

Fig 4. Flow chart of the statistical approach for the calculation of the predicted prevalence of ADPKD.

Fig 5. Renal survival of patients according to the type of their variant.