Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2018 Jan 25;13(1):e0190840.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0190840. eCollection 2018.

Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model

Cameron H Ainsworth  1 , Claire B Paris  2 , Natalie Perlin  2 , Lindsey N Dornberger  1 , William F Patterson 3rd  3 , Emily Chancellor  1 , Steve Murawski  1 , David Hollander  1 , Kendra Daly  1 , Isabel C Romero  1 , Felicia Coleman  4 , Holly Perryman  2
Affiliations

Impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill evaluated using an end-to-end ecosystem model

Cameron H Ainsworth et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

We use a spatially explicit biogeochemical end-to-end ecosystem model, Atlantis, to simulate impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and subsequent recovery of fish guilds. Dose-response relationships with expected oil concentrations were utilized to estimate the impact on fish growth and mortality rates. We also examine the effects of fisheries closures and impacts on recruitment. We validate predictions of the model by comparing population trends and age structure before and after the oil spill with fisheries independent data. The model suggests that recruitment effects and fishery closures had little influence on biomass dynamics. However, at the assumed level of oil concentrations and toxicity, impacts on fish mortality and growth rates were large and commensurate with observations. Sensitivity analysis suggests the biomass of large reef fish decreased by 25% to 50% in areas most affected by the spill, and biomass of large demersal fish decreased even more, by 40% to 70%. Impacts on reef and demersal forage caused starvation mortality in predators and increased reliance on pelagic forage. Impacts on the food web translated effects of the spill far away from the oiled area. Effects on age structure suggest possible delayed impacts on fishery yields. Recovery of high-turnover populations generally is predicted to occur within 10 years, but some slower-growing populations may take 30+ years to fully recover.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Atlantis polygon geometry.
Shaded polygons: heavily impacted areas, asterisk: site of oil spill, triangles: reef survey sites.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Biomass trajectories for species guilds.
Biomasses are summed across all functional groups within these guilds. Shaded area shows range of outcomes observed in sensitivity analysis on concentration factor K and threshold β. Black line shows the mean of the 16 sensitivity runs.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Biomass minima versus years to recovery.
Data are relative to no-oil scenario. Criterion for recovery: achieving 99% of biomass of the no-oil scenario. Functional groups > 50 years to recovery did not recover within simulation period. Points show Atlantis functional groups arranged by guild. Represents oil simulation [K1000 β363].
Fig 4
Fig 4. Differences in age composition for the large demersal fish guild.
No oil (dark gray); oiled (light gray). Data represent October 2010 for heavily impacted polygons. Represents oil simulation [K1000 β363]. A) Relative proportion, B) absolute biomass.
Fig 5
Fig 5. Absolute biomass reduction for no oil versus oil scenario for grouper guild.
Biomass minima is shown occurring at 10 months after the oil spill. Oil simulation [K1000 β363].
Fig 6
Fig 6. Condition factor of grouper guild.
Condition factor is represented as reserve:structural Nitrogen ratio. High rN/sN indicates good body condition. Dotted line: no oil scenario, solid line: oiled [K1000 β363].
Fig 7
Fig 7. Projected annual catch for whole GOM.
Catch presented relative to no-oil scenario. Error bars show range of sensitivity analysis; bars show mean.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Murawski SA, Hogarth WT, Peebles GM, Barbeiri L (2014) Prevalence of external skin lesions on PAH concentrations in Gulf of Mexico fisheries, post-Deepwater Horizon. Trans Am Fish Soc 143: 1084–1097.
    1. Tarnecki JH, Patterson WF (2015) Changes in red snapper, Lutjanus campechanus, diet and trophic ecology in the northern Gulf of Mexico following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Mar Coast Fish 7: 135–147.
    1. Whitehead A, Dubansky B, Bodinier C, Garcia TI, Miles S, Pilley C, et al. (2012) Genomic and physiological footprint of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on resident marsh fishes. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109: 20298–20302. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1109545108 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Silliman BR, van de Koppel J, McCoy MW, Diller J, Kasozi GN, Earl K, et al. (2012) Degradation and resilience in Louisiana salt marshes after the BP-Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109: 11234–11239. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204922109 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. US Fish and Wildlife Service (2011) Deepwater Horizon response consolidated fish and wildlife collection report. Department of the Interior. Available: https://www.fws.gov/home/dhoilspill/pdfs/Consolidated%20Wildlife%20Table.... Accessed Sept 2016.

Publication types