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. 2018 Feb 6;9(1):406.
doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-02774-9.

Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs

Mikhail Sofiev  1 , James J Winebrake  2 , Lasse Johansson  1 , Edward W Carr  3 , Marje Prank  1 , Joana Soares  1 , Julius Vira  1 , Rostislav Kouznetsov  1 , Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen  4 , James J Corbett  5
Affiliations

Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs

Mikhail Sofiev et al. Nat Commun. .

Abstract

We evaluate public health and climate impacts of low-sulphur fuels in global shipping. Using high-resolution emissions inventories, integrated atmospheric models, and health risk functions, we assess ship-related PM2.5 pollution impacts in 2020 with and without the use of low-sulphur fuels. Cleaner marine fuels will reduce ship-related premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54%, respectively, representing a ~ 2.6% global reduction in PM2.5 cardiovascular and lung cancer deaths and a ~3.6% global reduction in childhood asthma. Despite these reductions, low-sulphur marine fuels will still account for ~250k deaths and ~6.4 M childhood asthma cases annually, and more stringent standards beyond 2020 may provide additional health benefits. Lower sulphur fuels also reduce radiative cooling from ship aerosols by ~80%, equating to a ~3% increase in current estimates of total anthropogenic forcing. Therefore, stronger international shipping policies may need to achieve climate and health targets by jointly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing financial intersts.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Mean annual PM2.5 concentrations from all sources. Model results showing mean annual PM2.5 concentrations in micrograms per cubic meter from all sources and with business-as-usual ship emissions in 2020
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Reduction in annual PM2.5 concentrations due to low-sulphur fuel standards. Model results showing the reduction in annual PM2.5 concentrations in micrograms per cubic meter due to the implementation of the International Maritime Organization’s global fuel sulphur standard in 2020
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Mortality due to ship emissions under a business-as-usual case. Map of combined mortality (from cardiovascular disease and lung cancer) due to PM2.5 emissions from ships under a business-as-usual case for 2020. The in-grid-cell minimum and maximum mortality estimates are 0 and 2550, respectively
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Avoided mortality due to fuel sulphur standards. Map of avoided mortality (cardiovascular disease and lung cancer) from reduced ship PM2.5 emissions due to implementation of the International Maritime Organization’s low-sulphur fuel standards in 2020. Annual avoided mortality minimum and maximum are 0 and 800, respectively
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Direct radiative forcing due to low-sulphur fuel standards. Direct radiative forcing in mW m−2 at the top of the atmosphere from scattering sulphate and nitrate aerosols due to implementation of the International Maritime Organization’s low-sulphur fuel standards for ships. Global mean is 3.9 mW m−2
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