Development of an Unrelated Donor Selection Score Predictive of Survival after HCT: Donor Age Matters Most

Abstract

Donor factors, in addition to HLA matching status, have been associated with recipient survival in unrelated donor (URD) hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT); however, there is no hierarchical algorithm that weights the characteristics of individual donors against each other in a quantitative manner to facilitate donor selection. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a donor selection score that prioritizes donor characteristics associated with better survival in 8/8 HLA-matched URDs. Two separate patient/donor cohorts, the first receiving HCT between 1999 and 2011 (n = 5952, c1), and the second between 2012 and 2014 (n = 4510, c2) were included in the analysis. Both cohorts were randomly spilt, 2:1, into training and testing sets. Despite studying over 10,000 URD transplants, we were unable to validate a donor selection score. The only donor characteristic associated with better survival was younger age, with 2-year survival being 3% better when a donor 10 years younger is selected. These results support previous studies suggesting prioritization of a younger 8/8 HLA-matched donor. This large dataset also shows that none of the other donor clinical factors tested were reproducibly associated with survival, and hence flexibility in selecting URDs based on other characteristics is justified. These data support a simplified URD selection process and have significant implications for URD registries.

Keywords: Donor age; Hematopoietic cell transplant; Unrelated donor.

Figure 1. Association of donor age with 2-year survival

The effect of increasing donor age on 2-year survival outcomes for the 2012–2014 testing cohort, c2 (with a 2-year OS of 54%). As donor age increases (X-axis), survival decreases (Y-axis).