Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2018 Apr;108(4):514-516.
doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2017.304260. Epub 2018 Feb 22.

Zika-Associated Microcephaly Epidemic and Birth Rate Reduction in Brazilian Cities

Fredi Alexander Diaz-Quijano  1 , Daniele Maria Pelissari  1 , Alexandre Dias Porto Chiavegatto Filho  1
Affiliations

Zika-Associated Microcephaly Epidemic and Birth Rate Reduction in Brazilian Cities

Fredi Alexander Diaz-Quijano et al. Am J Public Health. 2018 Apr.

Abstract

Objectives: To estimate birth reduction potentially in response to Zika virus-associated microcephaly among the 36 largest Brazilian cities.

Methods: We analyzed the number of live births per month on the basis of information on approximately 8.2 million births from all of Brazil's state capitals and cities that had more than 10 000 annual births.

Results: In the second half of 2016, the live birth rate was reduced by 7.78% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 6.64%, 8.89%; P < .001). This reduction was correlated with the Zika virus-associated microcephaly rate. In the cities with the highest microcephaly rate in 2015 (> 1 case per 1000 live births), the reduction in the live birth rate was 10.84% (95% CI = 8.58%, 13.04%).

Conclusions: The birth rate in the largest Brazilian cities during the second half of 2016 was significantly reduced, which is potentially the effect of a birth control recommendation prompted by an epidemiological alert. Public Health Implications. The effects of population-based interventions should be weighed by considering the actual risk of disease and the sociodemographic impact of strategies such as birth control.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

FIGURE 1—
FIGURE 1—
Sum of Predicted and Observed Births by Year and Month: 36 Brazilian Cities, 2013–2016
FIGURE 2—
FIGURE 2—
Ratio of Birth Rates: 36 Brazilian Cities, Second Half of 2016 Note. Shown is the association between the second half of 2016 and the birth rate in 36 Brazilian cities. The cities are ranked in 3 groups according to the incidence of ZIKV-associated microcephaly reported in 2015. At the top of the figure are the cities that did not have cases (sorted from highest to lowest number of births in 2015). In the second group are the cities that had cases of ZIKV-associated microcephaly but with a rate lower than 1 case per 1000 live births. In the bottom are the cities with a microcephaly incidence higher than 1 case per 1000 live births in 2015. ZIKV-associated microcephaly rates (per 1000 live births) are presented in parentheses.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Rodriguez-Morales AJ, Villamil-Gómez WE, Franco-Paredes C. The arboviral burden of disease caused by co-circulation and co-infection of dengue, chikungunya and Zika in the Americas. Travel Med Infect Dis. 2016;14(3):177–179. - PubMed
    1. Baud D, Gubler DJ, Schaub B, Lanteri MC, Musso D. An update on Zika virus infection. Lancet. 2017;390(10107):2099–2109. - PubMed
    1. Mlakar J, Korva M, Tul N et al. Zika virus associated with microcephaly. N Engl J Med. 2016;374(10):951–958. - PubMed
    1. Awadh A, Chughtai AA, Dyda A, Sheikh M, Heslop DJ, MacIntyre CR. Does Zika virus cause microcephaly—applying the Bradford Hill Viewpoints. PLoS Curr. 2017;9 pii: ecurrents.outbreaks.2fced6e886074f6db162a00d4940133b. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Aguiar R, Araujo IS. The media among the Zika virus “emergencies”: issues for the communication and health field. Rev Eletron Comun Inf Inov Saúde. 2016;10(1):1–15.

MeSH terms

LinkOut - more resources