Early estimates of cancer incidence for 2015: Expanding to include estimates for white and black races

Abstract

Background: The National Cancer Institute's cancer incidence estimates through 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registries' November 2017 submission are released in April 2018.

Methods: Early estimates (February 2017) of cancer incidence rates and trends from the SEER 18 registries for diagnoses in 2000 through 2015 were evaluated with a revised delay-adjustment model, which was used to adjust for the undercount of cases in the early release. For the first time, early estimates were produced for race (whites and blacks) along with estimates for new sites: the oral cavity and pharynx, leukemia, and myeloma.

Results: Model validation comparing delay-adjusted rates and trends through 2014 and using 2016 submissions showed good agreement. Differences in trends through 2015 in comparison with those through 2014 were evident. The rate of female breast cancer rose significantly from 2004 to 2015 by 0.3% per year (annual percent change [APC] = 0.3%); the prior trend through 2014 (the same magnitude) was not yet significant. The female colon and rectum cancer trend for whites became flat after previously declining. Lung and bronchus cancer for whites showed a significant decline (APC for males = -2.3%, 2012-2015; APC for females = -0.7%, 2011-2015). Thyroid cancer for black females changed from a continuous rise to a flat final segment (APC = 1.6%, not significant, 2011-2015). Both kidney and renal pelvis cancer (APC = 1.5%, 2011-2015) and childhood cancers (APC = 0.5%, 2000-2015) for white males showed a significant rise in the final segments from previously flat trends. Kidney and renal pelvis cancer for black males showed a change from a significant rise to a flat trend.

Conclusions: The early release of SEER data continues to be useful as a preliminary estimate of the most current cancer incidence trends. Cancer 2018;124:2192-204. © 2018 American Cancer Society.

Keywords: annual percent change; delay adjustment; early cancer rate estimates by race; early estimates of cancer incidence rates; population-based registry data.

Figure 1.

SEER 18 registries’ observed and delay-adjusted incidence rates for selected sites for males for the diagnosis years 2000-2015 from the February 2017 SEER submission. SEER indicates Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results.

Figure 2.

SEER 18 registries’ observed and delay-adjusted incidence rates for selected sites for females for the diagnosis years 2000-2015 from the February 2017 SEER submission. SEER indicates Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results.