The prognostic value of acute-on-chronic liver failure during the course of severe alcoholic hepatitis

Abstract

Background & aims: A better identification of factors predicting death is needed in alcoholic hepatitis (AH). Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) occurs during the course of liver disease and can be identified when AH is diagnosed (prevalent ACLF [pACLF]) or during follow-up (incidental ACLF [iACLF]). This study analyzed the impact of ACLF on outcomes in AH and the role of infection on the onset of ACLF and death.

Methods: Patients admitted from July 2006 to July 2015 suffering from biopsy-proven severe (s)AH with a Maddrey discriminant function (mDF) ≥32 were included. Infectious episodes, ACLF, and mortality were assessed during a 168-day follow-up period. Results were validated on an independent cohort.

Results: One hundred sixty-five patients were included. Mean mDF was 66.3 ± 20.7 and mean model for end-stage liver disease score was 26.8 ± 7.4. The 28-day cumulative incidence of death (CID) was 31% (95% CI 24-39%). Seventy-nine patients (47.9%) had pACLF. The 28-day CID without pACLF and with pACLF-1, pACLF-2, and pACLF-3 were 10.4% (95% CI 5.1-18.0), 30.8% (95% CI 14.3-49.0), 58.3% (95% CI 35.6-75.5), and 72.4% (95% CI 51.3-85.5), respectively, p <0.0001. Twenty-nine patients (17.5%) developed iACLF. The 28-day relative risk of death in patients developing iACLF was 41.87 (95% CI 5.2-335.1; p <0.001). A previous infection was the only independent risk factor for developing iACLF during the follow-up. Prevalence, incidence, and impact on prognosis of ACLF were confirmed in a validation cohort of 97 patients with probable sAH.

Conclusions: ACLF is frequent during the course of sAH and is associated with high mortality. Infection strongly predicts the development of ACLF in this setting.

Lay summary: In patients with chronic liver disease, an acute deterioration of liver function combined with single or multiple organ failures is known as acute-on-chronic liver failure. This study shows that acute-on-chronic liver failure is frequent during the course of severe alcoholic hepatitis. In severe alcoholic hepatitis, acute-on-chronic liver failure is associated with high mortality and frequently occurs after an infection.

Keywords: Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure; Infection; Prognosis; Risk factors; Severe Alcoholic Hepatitis.