Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Review
. 2018;8(1):1-8.
doi: 10.1007/s40140-018-0246-9. Epub 2018 Jan 30.

Risk Assessment

Pragya Ajitsaria  1   2 , Sabry Z Eissa  1   2 , Ross K Kerridge  1   2
Affiliations
Review

Risk Assessment

Pragya Ajitsaria et al. Curr Anesthesiol Rep. 2018.

Abstract

Purpose of review: The central question of preoperative assessment is not "What can be done?" but "What should be done and how?" Predicting a patient's risk of unwanted outcomes is vital to answering this question. This review discusses risk prediction tools currently available and anticipates future developments.

Recent findings: Simple, parsimonious risk scales and scores are being replaced by complex risk prediction models as high-capacity information systems become ubiquitous. The accuracy of risk estimation will be further increased by improved assessment of physical fitness, frailty, and incorporation of existing and novel biomarkers. However, the limitations of risk prediction for individual patient care must be recognized.

Summary: Risk prediction is transforming from clinical estimation to statistical science. Predictions should be used within the context of a patient's baseline risk (life expectancy independent of surgery), personal circumstances, quality of life, their expectations and values, and consideration of outcomes that are meaningful for the patient.

Keywords: Prehabilitation; Preoperative evaluation; Preoperative risk assessment; Surgical risk assessment.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Compliance with Ethical StandardsPragya Ajitsaria, Sabry Z. Eissa, and Ross K. Kerridge declare they have no conflict of interest.This article does not contain any studies with human or animal subjects performed by any of the authors.

References

    1. Wong J, Lam DP, Abrishami A, Chan MT, Chung F. Short-term preoperative smoking cessation and postoperative complications: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Can J Anesth. 2012;59(3):268–279. doi: 10.1007/s12630-011-9652-x. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Mayo NE, Feldman L, Scott S, Zavorsky G, Kim DJ, Charlebois P, Stein B, Carli F. Impact of preoperative change in physical function on postoperative recovery: argument supporting prehabilitation for colorectal surgery. Surgery. 2011;150(3):505–514. doi: 10.1016/j.surg.2011.07.045. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Carlisle JB. Assessing fitness, predicting outcome, and the missing axis. Br J Anaesth. 2012;109(1):35–39. doi: 10.1093/bja/aes178. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Peden CJ, Grocott MPW. National Research Strategies: what outcomes are important in peri-operative elderly care? Anaesthesia. 2014;69:61–69. doi: 10.1111/anae.12491. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Shulman M, Myles P. Measuring perioperative outcome. Curr Opin Anaesthesiol. 2016;29(6):733–738. doi: 10.1097/ACO.0000000000000383. - DOI - PubMed

LinkOut - more resources