Conditional survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: results from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry

Abstract

Background: Compared with overall survival, conditional survival is a more relevant measure of prognosis in surviving patients over time. The aim of this study was to describe the conditional survival of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma according to different prognostic variables through an analysis of a national population-based cancer registry.

Methods: We analyzed data from 3,082 hepatocellular carcinoma patients who were diagnosed between 2004 and 2014.

Results: The conditional overall and cause-specific survival improved from 37.6% to 68.9% and 45% to 79.1%, respectively, in the entire study population. The conditional overall and cause-specific survival improved from 32.6% to 69.3% and 40.1% to 74.8%, respectively, in patients aged 65 to 74 years. The conditional overall and cause-specific survival improved from 8.4% to 44.1% and 12.1% to 66.1%, respectively, in the stage IVB group. The conditional overall and cause-specific survival improved from 32.8% to 71.4% and 40.3% to 78.4%, respectively, in the positive/elevated AFP group.

Conclusions: Conditional survival exhibited an improved prognosis over time. For hepatocellular carcinoma patients who survived for a specific period of time after diagnosis, more dramatic improvements occurred in patients aged 65-74 years, patients with AJCC stage IVB, and patients with a positive/elevated AFP value.

Keywords: Conditional survival; SEER; cause-specific survival; hepatocellular carcinoma; overall survival.