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. 2018 Mar 19;13(3):e0193135.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0193135. eCollection 2018.

Inequalities in esophageal cancer mortality in Brazil: Temporal trends and projections

Juliano Dos Santos  1 , Karina Cardoso Meira  2 , Taynãna César Simões  3 , Raphael Mendonça Guimarães  4 , Mauricio Wiering Pinto Telles  2 , Laiane Felix Borges  2 , Auzenda Conceição Parreira de Assis  2 , Maria das Vitorias Silva  2 , Isabelle Ribeiro Barbosa  5 , Angela Carolina Brandão de Souza Giusti  6 , Camila Alves Dos Santos  6 , Dyego Leandro Bezerra de Souza  5
Affiliations

Inequalities in esophageal cancer mortality in Brazil: Temporal trends and projections

Juliano Dos Santos et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

The main objective of the study was to analyze the effect of age, period and birth cohort on esophageal cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions, per sex. An ecological study is presented herein, which evaluated the deaths by esophageal cancer and the distribution, per geographic region. Poisson Regression was utilized to calculate the effects of age, period and birth cohort, and projections were made with the statistical software R, using the age-period-cohort model. Projection of data covered the period 2015-2029. Regarding the geographic regions of Brazil, a decrease was verified, throughout time, for the mortality rates of the South and Southeast regions, for men and women. For the North, Northeast and Midwest regions, an increase was evidenced in mortality rates, mainly for men, after the 2000's. Regarding the projections, a progressive increase of mortality rates was verified for the Northeast and North regions. Divergences evidenced for observed and projected esophageal cancer mortality rates revealed inequalities among the geographic regions of Brazil.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Mortality rates for esophageal cancer in females, according to age, death period, and geographical region in Brazil.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Mortality rates for esophageal cancer in males, according to age, death period, and geographical region in Brazil.
Fig 3
Fig 3. Results of the age-period-cohort model, adjusted for esophageal cancer mortality in males, according to geographical region, in Brazil.
Fig 4
Fig 4. Results of the age-period-cohort model, adjusted for esophageal cancer mortality in females, according to geographical region, in Brazil.
Fig 5
Fig 5. World age-standardized rates (ASW), changes in numbers of deaths (No) relative change due to risk (Risk) and changes in the structure of population (Pop), between 2010–2014 (observed) and 2025–2029 (predicted) of esophageal cancer mortality in Brazil.
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