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. 2018 Mar;23(11):18-00079.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079.

Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Josephine L K Murray  1 , Diogo F P Marques  1 , Ross L Cameron  1 , Alison Potts  2 , Jennifer Bishop  1 , Beatrix von Wissmann  3 , Naoma William  1 , Arlene J Reynolds  1 , Chris Robertson  1   4 , Jim McMenamin  1
Affiliations

Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Josephine L K Murray et al. Euro Surveill. 2018 Mar.

Abstract

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)-dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

Keywords: Scotland; epidemiology; influenza; influenza virus; laboratory; laboratory surveillance; modelling; policy; sentinel surveillance; statistics; viral infections.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Primary care swab influenza positivity data, moving epidemic method thresholds and predicted peak activity period for the 2017/18 influenza season in Scotland
Figure 2
Figure 2
Secondary care swab positivity data, moving epidemic method thresholds and predicted peak activity period for the 2017/18 influenza season in Scotland
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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