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. 2018 Feb 21;19(1):756.
doi: 10.4102/sajhivmed.v19i1.756. eCollection 2018.

Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa

Nathan Geffen  1 , Alex Welte  2
Affiliations

Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic: A review of the substance and role of models in South Africa

Nathan Geffen et al. South Afr J HIV Med. .

Abstract

We review key mathematical models of the South African human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic from the early 1990s onwards. In our descriptions, we sometimes differentiate between the concepts of a model world and its mathematical or computational implementation. The model world is the conceptual realm in which we explicitly declare the rules - usually some simplification of 'real world' processes as we understand them. Computing details of informative scenarios in these model worlds is a task requiring specialist knowledge, but all other aspects of the modelling process, from describing the model world to identifying the scenarios and interpreting model outputs, should be understandable to anyone with an interest in the epidemic.

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Conflict of interest statement

Nathan Geffen occupied senior positions, both as a staff and executive member, in the Treatment Action Campaign (TAC) from 2000 to 2013. Both he and the TAC were active participants in the debates described in this article. He has received bursary contributions towards his PhD research from the Centre for Social Science Research and the South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis. Alex Welte has no disclosures.

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