Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic - The model behind the documentary

Abstract

To mark the centenary of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the broadcasting network BBC have put together a 75-min documentary called 'Contagion! The BBC Four Pandemic'. Central to the documentary is a nationwide citizen science experiment, during which volunteers in the United Kingdom could download and use a custom mobile phone app called BBC Pandemic, and contribute their movement and contact data for a day. As the 'maths team', we were asked to use the data from the app to build and run a model of how a pandemic would spread in the UK. The headline results are presented in the TV programme. Here, we document in detail how the model works, and how we shaped it according the incredibly rich data coming from the BBC Pandemic app. We have barely scratched the depth of the volunteer data available from the app. The work presented in this article had the sole purpose of generating a single detailed simulation of a pandemic influenza-like outbreak in the UK. When the BBC Pandemic app has completed its collection period, the vast dataset will be made available to the scientific community (expected early 2019). It will take much more time and input from a broad range of researchers to fully exploit all that this dataset has to offer. But here at least we were able to harness some of the power of the BBC Pandemic data to contribute something which we hope will capture the interest and engagement of a broad audience.

Keywords: Contact data; Fine-level spatial simulation; Human mobility; Influenza dynamics; Mobile phone data.