Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
Review
. 2018 Jun;5(2):293-304.
doi: 10.1007/s40572-018-0196-x.

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Infectious Disease Transmission Modeling of Waterborne Enteric Pathogens

Andrew F Brouwer  1 , Nina B Masters  1 , Joseph N S Eisenberg  2
Affiliations
Review

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment and Infectious Disease Transmission Modeling of Waterborne Enteric Pathogens

Andrew F Brouwer et al. Curr Environ Health Rep. 2018 Jun.

Abstract

Purpose of review: Waterborne enteric pathogens remain a global health threat. Increasingly, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and infectious disease transmission modeling (IDTM) are used to assess waterborne pathogen risks and evaluate mitigation. These modeling efforts, however, have largely been conducted independently for different purposes and in different settings. In this review, we examine the settings where each modeling strategy is employed.

Recent findings: QMRA research has focused on food contamination and recreational water in high-income countries (HICs) and drinking water and wastewater in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). IDTM research has focused on large outbreaks (predominately LMICs) and vaccine-preventable diseases (LMICs and HICs). Human ecology determines the niches that pathogens exploit, leading researchers to focus on different risk assessment research strategies in different settings. To enhance risk modeling, QMRA and IDTM approaches should be integrated to include dynamics of pathogens in the environment and pathogen transmission through populations.

Keywords: Enteric disease; Human ecology; Infectious disease transmission modeling; Quantitative microbial risk assessment; Waterborne pathogen.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Schematics of typical a) quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) and b) infectious disease transmission model (IDTM) research studies.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Distribution of a) quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) research studies by transmission pathway and b) infectious disease transmission model (IDTM) research studies by study objective. The distributions are stratified by income context (low- and middle-income (LMIC) and high-income (HIC) countries). IDTM articles without a specific country context are not included in this figure.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. GBD 2015 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The Lancet. 2016;388(10053):1459–1544. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Julian TR. Environmental transmission of diarrheal pathogens in low and middle income countries. Environmental Science: Processes & Impacts. 2016;18(8):944–955. - PubMed
    1. Curriero FC, Patz JA, Rose JB, Lele S. The Association Between Extreme Precipitation and Waterborne Disease Outbreaks in the United States, 1948–1994. American Journal of Public Health. 2001;91(8):1194–1199. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Wade TJ, Sandhu SK, Levy D, Lee S, LeChevallier MW, Katz L, et al. Did a Severe Flood in the Midwest Cause an Increase in the Incidence of Gastrointestinal Symptoms? American Journal of Epidemiology. 2004;159(4):398–405. - PubMed
    1. Levy K, Woster AP, Goldstein RS, Carlton EJ. Untangling the Impacts of Climate Change on Waterborne Diseases: A Systematic Review of Relationships between Diarrheal Diseases and Temperature, Rainfall, Flooding, and Drought. Environmental Science and Technology. 2016;50(10):4905–4922. - PMC - PubMed

Publication types

MeSH terms