Application of the Revised Cardiac Risk Index to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Score Improves the Prediction of Cardiac Events in Patients Undergoing Liver Transplantation

Abstract

Introduction: Although the revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) is a useful tool for estimating the risk of postoperative cardiac events, whether it improves the prediction of cardiac events in patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT) has not been sufficiently demonstrated.

Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 1429 patients who underwent LT. Cardiac events were defined as myocardial infarction, death, or combined events within 30 days after surgery. The RCRI was defined as the number of independent predictors including high-risk surgery, ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, insulin treatment, and creatinine level >2 mg/dL. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors independently associated with cardiac events. The additive predictability of RCRI for the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.

Results: Forty-four (3.1%) cardiac events occurred within 30 days after surgery. Both the MELD score (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.05; P = .005) and RCRI (aOR, 4.35; P < .001 for RCRI score 2; aOR, 6.27; P = .009 for RCRI score 3 compared with RCRI score 1) independently predicted postoperative 30-day cardiac events. The model with MELD score plus RCRI was significantly more predictive for postoperative 30-day cardiac events than the model with MELD score alone (C-statistics 0.800 vs 0.757; P = .030).

Conclusions: For preoperative risk stratification, RCRI showed additive value to MELD score in predicting postoperative 30-day cardiac events after LT.