Assessing the Impacts of Positive Selection on Coalescent-Based Species Tree Estimation and Species Delimitation

Abstract

The assumption of strictly neutral evolution is fundamental to the multispecies coalescent model and permits the derivation of gene tree distributions and coalescent times conditioned on a given species tree. In this study, we conduct computer simulations to explore the effects of violating this assumption in the form of species-specific positive selection when estimating species trees, species delimitations, and coalescent parameters under the model. We simulated data sets under an array of evolutionary scenarios that differ in both speciation parameters (i.e., divergence times, strength of selection) and experimental design (i.e., number of loci sampled) and incorporated species-specific positive selection occurring within branches of a species tree to identify the effects of selection on multispecies coalescent inferences. Our results highlight particular evolutionary scenarios and parameter combinations in which inferences may be more, or less, susceptible to the effects of positive selection. In some extreme cases, selection can decrease error in species delimitation and increase error in species tree estimation, yet these inferences appear to be largely robust to the effects of positive selection under many conditions likely to be encountered in empirical data sets.