National forecasts of the medical care costs of AIDS: 1988-1992

Abstract

Two statistical extrapolation models and data on the number of AIDS cases reported between January 1984 and June 1988 yield projections on the future numbers of AIDS cases which are considerably higher than those of earlier projections, while analysis of the lifetime cost of treating an AIDS patient in 1988 dollars yields estimates lower than most previous estimates. Based on an estimate of $60,000 per patient holding between 1988 and 1992, the analysis forecasts the cumulative lifetime medical care costs of treating all AIDS patients diagnosed with AIDS to be about $2.6 billion in 1988, $3.5 billion in 1989, $4.7 billion in 1990, $6.0 billion in 1991, and $7.5 billion in 1992.