An Empiric Risk Score to Guide PrEP Targeting Among MSM in Coastal Kenya

Abstract

Men who have sex with men (MSM), who have heterogeneous HIV-acquisition risks are not specifically targeted in Kenyan pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) guidelines. We used data from an open cohort, which followed 753 initially HIV-negative MSM participants for more than 1378.5 person-years, to develop an empiric risk score for targeting PrEP delivery. Independent predictors of incident HIV-1 infection in this cohort were an age of 18-24 years, having only male sex partners, having receptive anal intercourse, having any unprotected sex, and having group sex. Poisson model coefficients were used to assign a numeric score to each statistically significant predictor. A risk score of ≥ 1 corresponded to an HIV-1 incidence of ≥ 2.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-4.1] and identified 81.3% of the cohort participants as being at high risk for HIV-1 acquisition. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.76 (95% CI 0.71-0.80). This empiric risk score may help Kenyan health care providers to assess HIV-1 acquisition risk and encourage PrEP uptake by high-risk MSM.

Keywords: HIV-1 acquisition; Kenya; MSM; PrEP; Risk score.

Figure 1.

HIV-1 incidence (95% CI, sensitivity, specificity) and proportion of men with a risk score at or above each cutoff point, among 753 MSM in Kilifi, Kenya, 2005–2016.