Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2014 Dec 18;40(19):429-436.
doi: 10.14745/ccdr.v40i19a02.

Estimated prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus infection in Canada, 2011

M Trubnikov  1 , P Yan  1 , C Archibald  1
Affiliations

Estimated prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus infection in Canada, 2011

M Trubnikov et al. Can Commun Dis Rep. .

Abstract

Background: Prevalence estimates contribute to our understanding of the magnitude of a particular health condition and in planning appropriate public health interventions.

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of chronic Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, anti-HCV-positive status (anti-HCV) and the proportion of undiagnosed HCV infections in Canada.

Methods: A combination of back-calculation and workbook methods was used. The back-calculation method estimated prevalent chronic HCV infection and the proportion undiagnosed using the Canadian Cancer Registry's data on hepatocellular carcinoma reported between 1992 and 2008 and the Canadian Notifiable Disease Surveillance System's data on Hepatitis C virus (HCV) cases reported between 1991 and 2009 in a Markov multi-state disease progression model with parameters adjusted to Canada. The workbook method divided the total population of Canada into population subsets and developed estimates of population size and anti-HCV prevalence for each. Sub-population size estimates were multiplied by anti-HCV prevalence measures to calculate the prevalence of anti-HCV by sub-population. A measure of spontaneous clearance was used to estimate the number of persons with chronic HCV from estimates of the number of anti-HCV-positive persons.

Results: The back-calculation method estimated the prevalence of chronic HCV infection at 0.64% and the proportion of undiagnosed chronic HCV infection at 44% in 2011. The workbook method estimated the anti-HCV prevalence at 0.96% (plausibility range: 0.61% to 1.34%) and chronic HCV infection at 0.71% (0.45 - 0.99%).

Interpretation: By combining mid-point estimates from both methods, it is estimated that between 0.64% to 0.71% of the overall Canadian population was living with chronic HCV infection in 2011 and 44% of these individuals were undiagnosed.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Estimated prevalence of chronic HCV1 infection (per 100 population) in Canada from a back-calculation model2
1 HCV = Hepatitis C virus
2 Note: Solid lines were used to reflect the birth cohort specific prevalence when it was above the overall prevalence. Dotted lines were used for when the prevalence was below the overall estimate.
3 CHC = chronic Hepatitis C
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Mohd Hanafiah K, Groeger J, Flaxman AD, Wiersma ST. Global epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection: new estimates of age-specific antibody to HCV seroprevalence. Hepatology 2013. Apr;57(4):1333–42. 10.1002/hep.26141 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Public Health Agency of Canada. Frequently asked questions about Hepatitis C. http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/hepc/faq-eng.php
    1. Scott JD, Gretch DR. Molecular diagnostics of hepatitis C virus infection: a systematic review. JAMA 2007. Feb;297(7):724–32. 10.1001/jama.297.7.724 - DOI - PubMed
    1. Shapshak P, Somboonwit C, Drumright LN, Frost SD, Commins D, Tellinghuisen TL et al. Molecular and contextual markers of hepatitis C virus and drug abuse. Mol Diagn Ther 2009;13(3):153–79. 10.1007/BF03256323 - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Giesecke J. Modern infectious disease epidemiology. Arnold, Hodder Headline Group; 2001.