Projections of hip arthroplasty in OECD countries up to 2050

Abstract

Objective: The study aims to estimate the future demand of hip arthroplasty for OECD countries and to compare the results with earlier studies.

Design: Based on data availability and validity 20 countries out of the OECD sample have been selected for projection analysis. Using historic data (1995-2012) and multiple linear regression technics a projection model was designed by an iterative process considering different explanatory variables such as health care expenditure, age groups, and projection time frames.

Results: The utilisation of hip implants in OECD countries continues to grow by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.2%, leading to an increase from 1.8 million per year in 2015 to 2.8 (2.6-2.9) in the year 2050. The mean utilisation rate (incidence) of hip implants will increase from 184 (143-312) to 275 (174-457) per 100.000 total population in the same time. Australia, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland and other countries will face a significant increase of utilisation of hip implants between +95% and +120% from 2015 to 2050.

Conclusions: Hip arthroplasty continues to rise significantly over the next 35 years. Therefore, some countries will face an exponential use of hip arthroplasty of additional 100% or more and thus challenges for their health care budgets. Revision burden will increase disproportionately. Thus, health technology assessment (HTA) for medical devices, longevity and quality control will become more relevant.

Keywords: Future demand; hip; projection; replacement; revision; utilisation rate.